WHO ARE THE PEOPLE GOVERNMENT IS SATISFYING?
Special Report by Dr Dele Sobowale
•Dreams of 2023 now nightmares of 2025
•Three things President must do NOW!
“(Political) Promises, like (biscuits) are made to be broken.” (slightly amended).
Jonathan Swift, 1667-1745. VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, p 203.
Special Report By Dr Dele Sobowale
INTRODUCTION
Anticipating this two years report on the promises and performance of the Tinubu administration, our small Consultancy undertook a study by sending out a Questionaire on the Performance of the Federal Government.
Two questions were asked; each requiring Yes or No answers:
Is your life better today than two years ago? Yes or No
Do you expect things to get better in two years? Yes or No The short questionnaire was administered nationwide verbally to people of different ages, ethnic groups, religions, gender and income class in all the six zones of Nigeria.
The answer to the first, not astonishing, was 3 per cent Yes and 97 per cent No. Surprisingly, the answer to the second was 1 per cent Yes and 99 per cent No. Together they reflect a nation in which the people are not only miserable, but, they have lost hope in their political leaders everywhere.
Politicians and promises are two Siamese twins which can never be separated; and which almost invariably bring distress to the citizenry. Oftentimes, outlandish pronouncements are deliberately made, which even they know cannot possibly be true, in order to gather the votes for victory at the next election.
Almost invariably, they soon discover that what was promised during elections cannot be delivered on reaching office. To cover their tracks they quickly assemble the brightest and best media and public relations practitioners – they can lay their hands on – and give them their marching orders to create a propaganda machinery. This is therefore an attempt to assess the Federal Government, FG, as objectively as possible. As we know, “You cannot adopt politics as a profession and be honest.” (Louis M Howe, 1871-1936, VBQ p 192).
President Bola Tinubu finished his second year in office in a few days ago. Everybody has had sufficient time to undertake a performance appraisal of the government he leads; and to determine whether or not he has done well. Examining some of the promises made in the RENEWED HOPE document and measuring them against actual performance is, perhaps, the best place to start.
PROMISES MADE IN 2023
“Great men and nations keep their promises.” US President George Bush, Snr.
Candidate Bola Tinubu, like others before him, was full of promises in the RENEWED HOPE document on which his campaign was based. A few specific pledges made are recalled below for the purpose of this performance appraisal.
Gross Domestic Product
Housing
Employment
Power Supply
Crude Oil Production
Security
Poverty
There are other aspects of our lives worthy of attention. But, the space and time available will not allow us to examine all of them in detail. Generally, the performance has been extremely disappointing in the first two years.
Tinubu came into office with a reputation for innovation and progress as a former Governor of Lagos State. But, as he finishes his half tenure in office, the acclaimed achievements in the past have become a distant memory. Right now all the indices seem to be pointing to work in process, at best; or outright failure at worst. These are the reasons for serious concern.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
“He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good”.
Confucius, 511-479 BC.
Perhaps not being in office was responsible for the gap between promise and performance regarding Gross Domestic Product, GDP. On the other hand, the RENEWED HOPE document might represent another instance of politicians promising more than they can deliver. The chart below would suggest deliberate and successful attempt to deceive Nigerians.
To begin with, the Nigerian economy has never grown at 10 per cent since records were kept. The best performance occurred during Gowon’s era when the GDP grew at 7 per cent for two years – 1973 and 1974. The second best was during Yar’Adua’s administration when the growth rates were approximately 6.5 per cent.
Why candidate Tinubu promised 10 per cent growth rate in 2023 to 2027 is a mystery only the President can explain. It was bad enough to promise it for one year; to extrapolate that level of growth for four years was over-optimistic at best; and coldly deceptive at worst. The real performance proves how far off the mark the government has been – rendering the document worthless henceforth.
In 2024, the actual GDP growth was 3.6 per cent instead of 10 per cent. The most optimistic forecast for 2025 is 3.0 per cent. Real GDP was US$199.72bn instead of US$586.7bn in 2024; it is projected to be US$188.27bn instead of US$645.3bn by year end.
GDP PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL
GROWTH REAL GDP
PROJECTION ACTUAL PROJECTION ACTUAL
2024 10% 3.6% US$ 586.7bn US$ 199.72bn
2025 10% 3.0% US$ 645.3bn US$ 188.27bn
Since the facts speak for themselves, no further comments are necessary.
HOUSING
Whoever wrote the section on housing in the RENEWED HOPE document must receive the national award for drivel. Starting with 4.0 units of housing in 2023, Tinubu projected doubling the housing stock in 2024 and adding 4 units every year until 2028 when it would peak at 24 – or six times what we started with. Apart from the absence of metrics – is it 4 thousands, millions or billions? – the promise defies the verdict of history. No nation doubles its housing stock in one year or multiplies it by six in five years.
…to be continued
