Speech by Prof Bart Nnaji
The Southeast Regional Stakeholders Summit on Restructuring, Reforms and the Inauguration of the South East Regional Steering Committee of the Council for the Regulation of Engineering in Nigeria (COREN)
GREETINGS & RECOGNITIONS
Very few things can provide an engineering professional as much satisfaction as being in the midst of his or her professional colleagues. Engineering is a most noble profession. Our colleagues who have ventured elsewhere have frequently excelled because of the solid training which engineering training entails and the values we imbibe in professional practice. China’s last three leaders are engineers, and the overwhelming majority of people holding public office in China are engineers. Therefore, it is not fortuitous that China has in the last few decades developed faster than any other nation in human history. This shows what engineers can do when given the opportunity. And this is an important lesson in national development for all nations and people.
I thank the organizers of this summit for not only inviting me but asking me to speak briefly on Energy Mix for a Sustainable Power Sector in Nigeria. I had assured the organizers that I would be with you in person today, however, with the African Export-Import (Afri-Exim) Bank Annual General Meeting holding in Abuja this week and where I am also speaking along with many dignitaries across the world including President Tinubu, former President Obasanji and numerous others, it’s no longer feasible to be with you in flesh and blood. I have consequently asked one of our consultants at Geometric Power, C. Don Adinuba, to represent me. As you may know, CDon was the Anambra State immediate past Commissioner for Information and Public Enlightenment, and prior to this, he served as my Special Adviser for Communication when I was Minister. He is currently Communication and Media consultant for Geometric Power.

By framing the title of my speech as “Energy Mix for a Sustainable Power Sector in Nigeria”, you have done much of the heavy lifting for me. I thank the COREN leadership in the Southeast for its clarity of thought, foresight, and vision. This title is marked by pragmatism, and it aligns with my personal convictions, the Nigerian government policy, and the global reality.
DOING AWAY WITH EXTREMISM
The conversation on energy security and a safer world has unfortunately been defined by extremism. The Libertarians and the Republicans in the United States who advocate “Drill, Baby, Drill” are in denial of global warming and climate change. They are not interested in the evidence provided by scientists. They are extremists. They want more coal-fired plants in the United States and elsewhere, even when there is a superabundance of evidence that coal plants are the greatest source of Ozone Layer depletion. Climate change is real. The forest fires in California increase in intensity yearly. Just on May 29, this year, a severe flood in Mokwa in Niger State took 207 lives confirmed within the first one week, with 700 unaccounted for. The flood destroyed 283 houses and 50 shops, and damaged 400 houses. The flood in Borno State last year was almost of the proportion recorded in the Bible regarding Noah.
The Greenpeace Movement and many other environmentalists also take an extremist position. They call for an immediate end to the use of all fossil fuels, including natural gas. At the UN Conference of Parties (COP) 28 in Dubai in late 2023, they were vociferous, but the conference organizers and global leaders in both the private and public sectors were more thoughtful and realistic in their assessments of the energy industry, and so took a sound position.
There will be nothing known as energy security if the world could wake up one morning to be told of a ban on fossil fuels. Renewable energy still has a long way to go before it can become dominant. Like all extremists, the Greenpeace Movement and many other environmentalists are anything but realistic. In fact, critics consider them hypocritical and self-serving. In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 which made Western nations impose sanctions on Moscow, despite its heavy natural gas energy reliance on Russia, countries like Germany, a foremost campaigner for clean energy, re-embraced coal plants. German Greenpeace issued a statement describing the return of coal plants as “understandable”.

The American Libertarians who want coal plants back in the mainstream of the country’s energy mix are also unrealistic. It costs far more today to operate coal plants than gas-fired plants, hence the rapid decommissioning of coal plants. Coal, which used to account for 50% of America’s electricity a few years ago, now generates only 19% of the nation’s power. The percentage is even decreasing, despite the growing demand for electricity in the United States as a result of the insatiable electricity thirst of generative AI data centres.
GAS IS THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
Of all three fossil fuels, natural gas is the least polluting. It is 20% cleaner than oil and 60% cleaner than coal. Its use is growing in most parts of the world. Even California, the leading state in the United States campaigning for clean energy, is building more gas plants. Shell plans to become in the next few years the world’s greatest gas producer, trader, and marketer. Total is also working hard to lead the world in the use of gas in the maritime sector, where it plans to replace oil with gas. The European Union, which has been leading the world in the campaign for renewable energy, has gradually been coming to terms with the reality that European nations and organizations will continue to use more gas within the foreseeable future. Are Europeans not involved in the building of multibillion dollar gas pipelines from Nigeria to Europe through the Niger Republic and Algeria or Morocco?
The increasing demand for gas should be good news to Nigeria. The country has 210.54 trillion standard cubic feet of natural gas. In other words, Nigeria is a gas province with sprinkles of crude oil which total reserve of 37.5 billion barrels. It means that Nigeria can become Africa’s largest gas exporter, taking over from Algeria which has 159 trillion cubic gas reserves. Algeria has used its gas proceeds to, among other achievements, build an internationally recognized technical university and provide electricity to all its 46.16 million citizens. Nigeria, in contrast, has, with 86 million people with no electricity access, the world’s highest.
While there is a need for foreign exchange from our resources like natural gas, charity must begin at home. Nigerian power plants and manufacturing firms are suffering a severe shortage of gas. To continue to provide our customers with uninterrupted and quality electricity, Geometric Power has been purchasing gas at almost $4 per standard cubic foot, as against $2,42 per cubic foot which the Federal Government sells to other grid power generation companies. Still, we are better than manufacturers who obtain the commodity at $9 per SCF or even some captive power companies that pay $9 per SCF. How can we explain that a country with so much gas resource does not have enough for its domestic consumption?

The demand for gas in Nigeria has been accentuated by the removal of the petrol subsidy, resulting in a sharp rise in the country’s aggregate price level. The Federal Government took the right step by establishing the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative to ameliorate the burden of the economic reform on the citizens. May this initiative succeed, with gas made easily available.
There are compelling economic reasons why gas will continue to be in high demand in a lot of countries, including Nigeria and the United States. I have already mentioned at the beginning of this speech how the competitiveness of the operational and maintenance costs of gas plants explains the rapid decline of coal plants from 50% to 19 % in the United States in recent years. Gas turbines are more efficient than renewable technologies. They produce double of what renewables generate. The combined cycle of steam gas produces first from a gas turbine and second from a steam turbine.
In Nigeria, it costs about $1.5 million to build one megawatt gas-fired plant. In Sub Sahara Africa, it costs an average of $0.07 to generate one kilowatt hour of conventional electricity, but $0.115 for I kWh from renewables.
….to be continued
Professor Nnaji, CON, NNOM, FAS, FAEng is the Chairman and CEO of Geometric Power Group
