Speech by Prof Bart Nnaji
….CONTINUED FROM YESTERDAY
There are compelling economic reasons why gas will continue to be in high demand in a lot of countries, including Nigeria and the United States. I have already mentioned at the beginning of this speech how the competitiveness of the operational and maintenance costs of gas plants explains the rapid decline of coal plants from 50% to 19 % in the United States in recent years. Gas turbines are more efficient than renewable technologies. They produce double of what renewables generate. The combined cycle of steam gas produces first from a gas turbine and second from a steam turbine.
In Nigeria, it costs about $1.5 million to build one megawatt gas-fired plant. In Sub Sahara Africa, it costs an average of $0.07 to generate one kilowatt hour of conventional electricity, but $0.115 for I kWh from renewables.
OFF-GRID ELECTRICITY
There has in the last few years been a strong campaign for the building of off-grid plants in places without electricity or are underserved. This is the against the background that Nigeria is said to have some 86 million people without electricity access. Off-grid electricity is promoted as the answer. There are mini dams abandoned throughout the country, from which power can be supplied to communities. Off-grid power can also be supplied from solar plants. Nigeria experiences plenty of sunshine which seems to make the electric solar business attractive.
According to a 2024 study, there are at least 67 off-grid plants in the country, producing just 52MW, less than 0.1% of national power supply. They include solar photovoltaic (PV) plants at the Nigerian Breweries captive plant in Ibadan, the Bwari water supply facility in Abuja and in different federal universities in Abakaliki, Sokoto and elsewhere, as well as in markets like Ariara in Aba. They were built by the Rural Electrification Agency (REA). To underscore the seriousness it attaches to the development of electricity access, the Federal Government this year gave to the Federal Ministry of Power $50m out of the $52m it received from the United States following the sale of ill-gotten assets from Nigerian businessmen working with a former Minister of Petroleum Resources. The remaining $2m was given to the Federal Ministry of Justice which received the proceeds from Washington on behalf of the Nigerian government.
Members of African Democratic Congress (ADC) during their meeting in Abuja recently
Indeed, there are private commercial mini and micro solar plants in parts of the country like the Federal Capital Territory and Port Harcourt, Rivers State, that provide light to rural and undeserved peri-urban communities. However, due to the high tariffs which are, on average, N405 per kilowatt hour, most customers, who are poorer than those on Band A in the cities and pay N209 per kilowatt hour, do not use it more than three hours daily. They just use the light to charge phones, watch television, run their small refrigerators and fans. Is this how we want our rural communities and peri-urban areas to be in the 21st century?
It takes about five years for a private business which invests in a mini off-grid solar PV plant to break even if the tariff is N450 kWh in a place like Port Harcourt. A report published in November 2024 by the Reiner Lemione Institute in Berlin, Germany, identified 660 communities in Nigeria as eligible for off-grid solar power. Ninety percent of the communities have fewer than 1,000 structures while the remaining 10% have between 1,000 and 4,500 structures. The average number of structures in the 660 communities is 300. According to the report, each structure would require 160kWp for its energy needs. On page 17, the report states: “The total annualized cost of such a system, including [the] grid infrastructure, is estimated to be about USD65,000. The upfront investment costs needed to electrify all of the communities are projected to be USD 385m”. This is huge, making it not-so competitive with gas-fired power supply.
Despite the huge costs, most of the 5m Nigerians who use this technology cannot use it to iron their clothes or run their ACs, let alone use it to wield iron. The few individuals and organizations who use solar power to power their Acs are the wealthy ones and rich commercial organizations like banks.
A red carpet reception meted out to President Tinubu on his arrival at Saint Lucia
I should think that promoters of solar energy hype the benefits, that is, they overlook the risks associated with this technology. The durable solar batteries are very expensive for most citizens. The more affordable ones last not more than three years. Worse, the batteries are not reusable, a major issue in this era of recycling and the circular economy. To worsen matters, the batteries can be combustible because they are lithium. The Korean plane fire of January 28, 2024, was caused by a power bank kept in the luggage comportment by a passenger; it exploded because it had lithium. To increase the challenges with solar battery, it doesn’t charge at night and it doesn’t work efficiently during the rainy season.
There are issues with other electricity technologies, including hydro power and nuclear energy. Vietnam, a global manufacturing hub, suffered power outages in May 2023, and it affected international supply chains. Much of its power is derived from hydroelectricity plants which were affected by drought in 2023. Nuclear, which the Americans have been packaging as a clean energy because it requires a small quantity of mineral resources to generate a significant quantum of power, has its own challenges. Japan battled for years before it could dispose of the waste water from its nuclear plant at Fukushima when it was devastated by Tsunami in 2011. If Japan, an advanced country, could experience such a huge challenge for long, how can a developing country like Nigeria grapple with it? When I was the Minister of Science and Technology in 1993 I encountered the work our scientists were doing building nuclear plant for electricity generation. My team and I however began to wonder how we could manage the nuclear power project when we, as a nation, were finding it extremely difficult to manage conventional hydro and gas power plants. Now, come to think of it: Is there any guarantee that a nuclear energy plant in the hands of a rogue government cannot be enriched with uranium secretly to become a nuclear bomb-making facility? We can see what is going with Iran and North Korea.
THE WAY FORWARD
The world, not just Nigeria, needs energy security to have sustainable development. Neither conventional electric power nor the so-called clean energy technologies can guarantee energy security or sustainable development which requires us to utilize our earthly resources in a way that will see us leave enough for our children and the generations coming after them. Therefore, I would advocate that the world sets a timetable to phase out coal and oil plants which are the fossil fuels contributing significantly to climate change. Though a fossil fuel, natural gas is in a different class. That’s why there is a resurgence of gas power across the globe. Gas power can co-exist very well with renewable and supposedly clean energies like nuclear. Energy mix for a sustainable power sector in not just Nigeria but the world is the way to go.
I thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for allowing me to share my thoughts on developing an energy mix for the power sector with you.
…The conclusion
Professor Nnaji, CON, NNOM, FAS, FAEng is the Chairman and CEO of Geometric Power Group
